The only question worth asking. What does it all mean for us?
The Italian bench went delirious when Eder pinged in his beautiful late goal to secure victory against Sweden. Italy's chances had been discounted by more or less everyone prior to the tournament. Just as they were in 2006 and 2012. Rumours of their incompetence turned out to have been greatly exaggerated. The Italians know what they're doing.
The assumption throughout today's game between Italy and Sweden was that an Italian win was by far the best result for us. That assumption was sound.
As things stand, Italy have ensured their qualification for the second round. They sit serenely atop the Group E table with six points.
Ireland and Sweden are both on one point, with Belgium still pointless.
Here are the possibilities:
If Ireland and Belgium draw tomorrow
The Guardian wrote this week that 1-1 almost feels like our default scoreline. We can't glance at our record and seriously dispute this statement. Therefore, we will first consider the possibilities in the event of a draw tomorrow.
A draw tomorrow means that not only will Italy have qualified from the group, they will have qualified in top spot. Italy will sit on six points, Ireland will lie second on two points, with Sweden and Belgium sitting on one point apiece.
Were Sweden and Belgium to draw in Nice, then a draw with Italy would guarantee Ireland's progression on three points. As in Italia 90, Ireland would reach the last 16 having drawn all their matches.
If either Sweden or Belgium were to win in Nice (it really wouldn't matter who), then we'd need a win against a hopefully de-motivated Italian team in Lille to guarantee progression as the second placed team.
If the match in Nice produces a winner, and we manage a draw in Lille, then it all gets very complicated.
It's possible that Ireland could qualify as a best third place team with three draws - but it is dodgy one to rely on. The third placed teams in Group B and Group C (Slovakia and Northern Ireland) already sit on three points. We have already done a fuller analysis on the third placed table breakdown here.
An added complication here is that one win and two losses trumps three draws in this breakdown. Thus, should Northern Ireland lose to Germany, they will still finish ahead 'three draws Ireland' in the third place table.
If Ireland win tomorrow
By all accounts, the atmosphere within the Belgian camp is foul. Their surly superstars are not convinced by the inexperienced manager. For those doubting this proposition, we refer you to Thibaut Courtois's comments during the week. The vibes are not good.
An Ireland victory will almost assure us of qualification. But not quite.
We will sit on four points and could only be dislodged from the runner-up spot by defeat in Lille by a Swedish victory over a Belgium, a victory that leaves them with a better goals scored or goal difference tally.
Even in that eventuality, it is highly unlikely - but not yet impossible - that a tally of four points would not be good enough for a best third place spot.
There is the added factor that a draw between Ireland and Italy in Lille would suit both teams - unless we were really bold and decided we had our hearts set on top spot.
If Ireland lose tomorrow
Naturally, we could do without losing tomorrow. But it would be far from fatal. Italy would still have top spot nailed down, as they beat Belgium in the opener.
Thus a victory over a potentially unmotivated, semi-second string Italian would leave us on four points and in a great position to claim one of the best third place spots.
We could even grab second spot should Sweden beat Belgium in the final game and our goal difference or goal scored tally is better than Sweden's spot.
The caveat here is that a loss to Belgium tomorrow means that victory is an absolute must in Lille.
A potential big positive
The words of Antonio Conte post today's game were music to the ears of Irish fans. When Peter Collins relayed them to Eamon Dunphy, the RTE panel emitted a barely concealed mixture of excitement and smugness.
Good news for Rep of Ireland. Conte confirms that in #ITA third group game v #ROI he'll "give time to those who had less of it until now."
— Oliver Kay (@OliverKayTimes) June 17, 2016
One could speculate that these new players will be anxious to impress and thus might be a trickier proposition than a band of complacent first-choicers who are preoccupied with avoiding injury.
But the consensus is still that this is good news for Ireland.
Added to this is the fact that five key players are all on yellow cards heading into Wednesday's game. Buffon, Chiellini, Eder, De Rossi and Bonucci may well be dropped.
It's unlikely that Buffon would pick up another yellow, but better safe than sorry is our considered view on the matter, one which we would impress very strongly on Conte had we his ear.
However, there is one last (rather left-field) dimension to consider. There is also the matter of Italy's peculiar football culture.
Perusing John Foot's 2007 book 'Calcio', a fascinating examination of the culture of Italian football, we happened upon a quote in the 'Scandals' chapter (it was a lengthy chapter).
It feel particularly apt to quote this before Ireland's game in Lille, given the low stakes nature of the encounter from an Italian point of view.
According to Foot, not only do Italians regard it as pointless to play for pride and pride alone, but they see it as 'scandalous' and 'outside Italian canons of fair play'.
End of season match fixing can take on another form, which has been the object of constant discussion and outrage over the years. They typical scenario is the following. A big team, with nothing left to play for, is playing a small team in relegation trouble. Over the years, the small teams have often won these games, leading to frequent accusations of agreements between players or clubs.
The reality is more simple, and perhaps more shocking. Quite simply, nobody in Italy expects the big team to try too hard in these cases. No agreement is needed: it comes naturally. In fact, in Italy it is often seen as scandalous, as outside Italian canons of fair play, to put in too much effort in games of this kind. It is rare for someone to play for pride alone. Useless effort is frowned upon.
This caricature of Italian football could prove greatly beneficial to Ireland, particularly if a draw was to suit either team.
