Week 4 of the NFL gets underway in Wembley this Sunday and @marcasbrennan takes a close look at where the value bets lie for today's match-ups.
Denver Broncos, San Diego Chargers, Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia Eagles accumulator @ 11/4
Realistically you are getting 11/4 on the Philadelphia Eagles beating the Washington Redskins as all the other three teams look certainties to win. The Broncos will saunter to victory with home field advantage as will the Chargers who face a hapless Cleveland Browns outfit. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers returns to his local city against a team who passed up the opportunity to draft him. A highly motivated Rodgers will show no mercy against a San Francisco outfit that look as organised as a junior infant packing their school bag. This leads us to the much maligned Philadelphia Eagles who are finally making some strides. It will be a close match but they know they have better chess pieces than their rivals and I liked the look of them last week in gaining their first win of the season.
Jordan Matthews over 65.5 receiving yards @ 10/11
Probably the bet of the week as Ladbrokes seemed to have dropped the ball in allowing such a low mark for the frustrating Mathews. Another bookmaker has his line at 78 yards which looks a lot more realistic. The Eagles wideout has been frustrating with a number of terrible drops not helping Philadelphia's offense, but he is the unquestionable number one target for Sam Bradford. In three games so far he has caught 22 passes and I expect him to haul in another hatful of passes thrown in his direction. Last week he caught 6 balls against a much superior secondary to the Redskins when playing the Jets and he should have no problems surpassing the above line.
Jeremy Hill over 50.5 rushing yards @ 10/11
The word disappointing doesn't clearly emphasise the frustration held with Cincinnati Bengals running back Jeremy Hill to date. He has struggled in the opening games and is forced to share carries with Giovanni Bernard, hence the above line being such a low total. However, this line is just too low for a back that will definitely be used on Sunday night at home to the Chiefs. He is still the starting tailback on offense and is up against a defence that will be tired from playing the Packers on Monday night and have another road game in Ohio. Hill will receive at least 14 carries and 51 yards should be well within range.
Matt Forte over 75.5 rushing yards @ 10/11
Regular readers of this column know how highly I rate Chicago Bears running back Matt Forte. Right now he is the only hope for Chicago on offense and there is no doubting he will get 20+ carries against a Raiders run defence that I have question marks about. They have yet to be truly tested by a back of Forte's quality and it was significant that John Fox continued with the run last week against the Seattle Seahawks despite falling behind early on.
Stevie Johnson over 45.5 receiving yards @ 10/11
After their ineptness with ball in hand last week, I expect the Chargers to unload an unmerciful tirade of offense on the Cleveland Browns. Yes, Keenan Allen will lead the wide receivers but there will be more than one person catching balls and benefitting from a motivated Phillip Rivers. Stevie Johnson could be the one as Browns cover man Joe Haden will probably follow Allen for the entirety of the match. In three matches played so far he has accounted for 82, 45 and 46 yards off 14 catches in total. This means he has every chance of surpassing 45.5 yards against a terrible Browns outfit who must make the long trek to the west coast.
Chris Ivory to score the first NY Jets touchdown @ 9/2
It would be amiss of me not to offer some value to those who might be tuning in as the New York Jets take on the Miami Dolphins in Wembley. The 9/2 on offer for running back Chris Ivory to score the Jets first TD is too big to turn down as he looks to be the lead runner when his team are in the red zone. He returns after missing week three of the NFL season and took a full part in training on Thursday so question marks about his fitness should be no worry. He already has two touchdowns to date and should add a third one in London against Miami.
