After the first week threw up its fair share of surprises, Marcas Brennan returns to give us an insight into where our small change should be going on the NFL tonight.
Pittsburgh Steelers + Baltimore Ravens win double @ 10/ 11
After an indifferent start to last week's tips, what better way to kick off than a double I am extremely confident in.
One of the best bets of the season lies in backing two AFC North teams with a point to prove on Sunday night. Both teams are sore from opening round losses and play extremely well when carrying a chip on their shoulder.
The Baltimore Ravens have never opened a season with an 0-2 record under the stewardship of John Harbaugh and this trend will continue as they should trounce the abysmal Oakland Raiders.
Pittsburgh hold a much trickier tie in their own backyard against the San Francisco 49ers but all the advantages lie with the hosts. They've had 10 days to prepare for this match, in comparison to their opponents who were on duty in the late game on Monday night and must travel from the west coast to the east coast for tonight's clash. Yes they will be brimming with confidence but I'm not sure they have the weapons to keep tabs with the Steelers offense whose no huddle package will surely play on the fatigue of the short week preparation and travel arrangements. A confident selection to kick of tonight's matches.
Cincinnati Bengals -3.0 @ 5/6
I generally tend to avoid games that look extremely close on paper but after some close studying during the week I really can see the Bengals covering the spread.
One stat that makes me so keen on Cincinnati is Andy Dalton's record when playing at 1pm eastern time on home turf. Dalton has won 9 of his last 11 matches played in these circumstances with one of those being a tie. Put simply, Dalton is elite when comfortable in his own surroundings and there's no doubt he has conditions to suit today.
The Chargers impressed last week but this is a whole different ball game as I expect the Bengals defensive line to dominate their opponents and completely disrupt their rhythm. Phillip Rivers won't get the time to pick out Keenan Allen like he did last week and the run game will struggle to find its feet. Remember this is not the same Andy Dalton that plays in the playoffs, this is the Andy Dalton who has lost one game in his past 11 played at home with an early kick off.
Sam Bradford over 273.5 passing yards @ 5/6
NFC east clashes tend to be high scoring affairs with quarterbacks given free reign to lead their team to victory.
A similar pattern should take place in Philadelphia tonight as both gunslingers face defences that have problems in their secondaries. What was most eye catching last week was the confidence Sam Bradford held under centre in the second half against the Falcons. He really did look like he was fully in tune with Chip Kelly's quick tempo offense.
I expect to see a similar performance from the former number one pick who has his doubters but has the ability to pick teams apart if healthy. The Cowboys pass defence isn't the most eye catching and I think Bradford can cause damage with quick slants to Jordan Matthews and screen plays to Darren Sproles. Another 300 yard game lies in store as the Cowboys will also post numbers thus ensuring the game is left in the capable hands of Bradford.
Doug Baldwin over 43.5 receiving yards @ 5/6
Some of you may be surprised to see Doug Baldwin as a bet worth following but there are reasons to believe he can surpass the low mark afforded to him for Sunday night's clash against Green Bay. In week one Baldwin was targeted on nine occasions and caught a total of seven balls accounting for a meagre 35 yards. Yes this is a low total but that was against an uncompromising Rams defence and any wide receiver that is thrown the ball on nine occasions has every opportunity to surpass 45 yards. I expect the Packers to put numbers on their NFC foes which will force their opponents into throwing the ball more often than usual and Baldwin should be the recipient of many targets.
Brandin Cooks over 80.5 receiving yards @ 10/11
The line for Drew Brees this week is over or under 305.5 yards. Which leads us to the question- who is going to catch all the balls that leads to such a colossal number.
The answer is Brandin Cooks.
Last week he was shadowed by Patrick Peterson through the Arizona desert which resulted in less than 50 receiving yards but the Bucs secondary don't have a talent like Peterson in their ranks and this should see Cooks cause havoc, particularly on deep routes.
Doug Martin over 62.5 rushing yards @ 10/11
After getting our hands burnt with Martin last week some of you may be questioning why we are returning to the scene of the crime. But there is no doubt the coaches of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were too quick to move away from their ground game and will no doubt be taking a more conservative approach when playing in the Super Dome tonight. Martin actually was impressive in his 11 runs and averaged 4.7 yards a carry. When you consider Andre Ellington averaged 5.2 yards against New Orleans seven days ago this is a weakness they will look to exploit with a runner who is sure to be fresh.
