After giving us four winners last week, @marcasbrennan is here to give us an insight into what players we should follow closely in tonight's NFL matches.
Andrew Luck over 297.5 passing yards @ 5/6
Luck has struggled to show any sort of form in the opening six games but a closer look at the teams he has faced gives certain clues to why he has failed to live up to expectations. Buffalo was a horrible place to start when you consider the euphoria of Rex Ryan taking over adding to the velocity of the home crowd support. In other matches he has faced Tennessee, New York Jets and New England. Both the Titans and Jets are the best two teams on a statistical front defending the pass while the Patriots defence is becoming a mean outfit. However, he is up against a terrible Saints secondary this weekend who have allowed a league high seven pass completions of over 40 yards. New Orleans will be no walkover which will force Luck into close to 45 passing attempts.
Arian Foster over 70.5 rushing yards @ 10/11
Foster was handed the rock on 18 occasions last week against the Jaguars and I expect a similar amount of carries, if not more, for one of the NFL's best running backs. The Texans travel to Miami to face a re-energised Dolphins team, and a defence that showcased some of its venom for interim head coach Dom Campbell's first game seven days ago. However, I feel their enthusiasm to get after the quarterback should create some large running lanes for Foster to exploit. The Texans are a different outfit when their lead tail-back is carrying the ball and he should receive more than 20 carries and easily surpass the above mark.
Latavius Murray over 65.5 rushing yards @ 10/11
Murray's production has dropped of late but he should see a return to form against one of the worst rush defences in San Diego on Sunday night. The Chargers are terrible against the run and are conceding a league high 5.4 yards a carry to opposing running backs. With this stat in mind Murray will need just 12 attempts to cover the spread but I expect Jack Del Rio to run the ball as much as possible to keep it out of the hands of Phillip Rivers and control the clock in the process.
Golden Tate over 60.5 receiving yards @ 10/11
Tate has been disappointing to date but a stat that jumped out at me was the amount of balls he has caught in home games this year. In three matches on home turf he has caught 19 passes, a stat which highlights how much Matthew Stafford trusts him when playing at Ford Field. The attention will be focused on Lions other receiver Calvin Johnson after a huge performance last week but this will force Stafford into alternatives like Tate who is a solid pass catcher. In week two of the season he accounted for 80 yards against the Vikings and I expect a similar line against their NFC foes.
Dion Lewis over 48.5 rushing and receiving yards @ 5/6
Lewis wasn't 100% last week against the Colts and that certainly limited his play. Although doubts still persist regarding his fitness I expect him to be a major part of the Patriots game plan against the Jets. I wouldn't be surprised if this is a tight game and the likes of Rob Gronkowski and Julian Endleman with not have it their own way when they take on Darrell Revis and Antonio Cromartie. Coupled with a strong defensive line from Todd Bowles men I expect plenty of short passes and a more compact offensive scheme from Brady. This will lead to Lewis being a key figure and his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield being crucial.
Alfred Morris over 40.5 rushing yards @ 10/11
I'm actually expecting a good game from Washington this weekend and would not be surprised if they defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This will be achieved with a healthy dose of running from tail back Alfred Morris. Yes, his play of late has left a lot to be desired but the above mark is just way too low for a runner who should receive the majority of carries on either first or second down. He is averaging 20 carries a game when playing at home and if he receives anything near that number he will easily surpass the above mark. At home he is averaging 80 yards per game, way above the low number allocated by the bookmake
