The first Sunday of the NFL season is finally upon us and Marcas Brennan takes a closer look at where our money should be going tonight.
New York Giants +6 @ 10/11
Ok so hands up who was expecting the New York Giants to be the first pick of the new season. Not many hands clamouring for the ceiling one reckons and from reading many articles of late, not many experts are giving Tom Coughlin's men much of a chance either. But this bet has stood out for me all summer and for a number of reasons. I was really surprised not to see the line closer to three or four points, as five of the last six matches played in Dallas have ended up with a winning margin of six points or less.
The Giants have problems with their secondary and it remains to be seen where their pass rush will come from but it's their offense where I feel they can cause plenty of problems for their divisional rivals. I loved the way Eli Manning finished last season and it seems like he has a much better feel for the current offensive scheme ran by Ben McAdoo. The Dallas defence do not have enough chess pieces to adequately cover Odell Beckham Junior and also keep an eye out for Rueben Randle, another bright spark who can cause damage outside the numbers.
It would be no surprise to see the Cowboys win but I expect a close, high-scoring encounter with the Giants keeping it tight throughout.
Indianapolis Colts -2.5 @ 20/23
The sexy pick for many this week is the Buffalo Bills causing an upset at home to the Colts but we're not ready to jump on the Rex Ryan bandwagon just yet. The Bills have a menacing defence, a strong running game and a home crowd that will be buzzing, such is the furore surrounding the additions on and off the field over the summer.
But this really comes down to the Colts and their ability to become a force to be reckoned with. If they are to win the Super Bowl, it's wins like these where foundations are laid and statements are made.
I expect a low scoring affair for much of the game with the addition of Frank Gore ultimately proving the difference. The Colts may struggle to move the ball through the air but having Gore in the backfield will give them the confidence to keep running the ball in an effort to tire the front seven of the Bills. A result of this should see passing lanes open up late on for Andrew Luck to take advantage of and ultimately lead his side to victory.
Joe Flacco over 250.5 passing yards @ 10/11
Flacco is up against a tough defence in Denver and will no doubt be put on his back more than once in the Mile High stadium. But a tough matchup for these type of QB's can bring out the best in them and it would not surprise me to see the Ravens throwing the ball more than usual tonight. The Broncos are a hard side to run against and I expect Justin Forsett to have little joy in that battle which will lead to Flacco having to take the game through the air.
Coupled with that, Peyton Manning always starts well at home and an early lead is certainly on the cards, leaving the Ravens with a lot of catching up to do. It could turn into a shoutout between the two aforementioned quarterbacks and this will play into the hands of the above bet.
Doug Martin over 72.5 rushing yards @ 10/11
Such is the form he showed in pre-season I'm very keen on Doug Martin enjoying a good outing against Tennessee. Martin finally looks injury free after two years battling various knock backs and is the unquestionable number one in Tampa Bay this season. He will get plenty of carries tonight, maybe 20 plus and is up against a weak looking run defence. Last year the Titans conceded a league-high 2,000 yards to opposing running backs and are up against a ball carrier who looks back to his best after two injury blighted seasons.
Jeremy Hill over 85.5 rushing yards @ 10/11
Jeremy Hill caught the eye last year and it was no surprise to see him feature high in the betting for the most amount of rushing yards in the forthcoming season. He starts off with a nice matchup against the Oakland Raiders who have tended to struggle against the run and words of his team-mate Darqueze Dennard highlight Hill's burgeoning talent, "He's going to have a phenomenal year," Dennard said. "He lost some weight and looks like he's ready to take the league by storm." He averaged 4.5 yards a carry in pre-season and I expect him to receive 20 plus carries today which should see him surpass the above line.
Matt Forte over 68.5 rushing yards @ 5/6
Forte is the best player in Chicago and a favourite of mine for a long time. His ability to catch the ball out of the backfield is a massive plus for the Bears and is one of the most under-rated runners in the league. Tonight he faces a Packers defence that generally struggles against the run which has been their Achilles heel for a number of years in my eyes. The plan for the Bears will be to keep Aaron Rodgers off the pitch for as long as possible, dictating a slow tempo and plenty of running plays from John Fox's men. Hence Forte should get plenty of carries and surpass the low line afforded to him at odds of 5/6.
Larry Fitzgerald first TD scorer @ 10/1 (New Orleans Saints @ Arizona Cardinals)
First touchdown scorer bets should be treated with extreme caution. Yet, It would be amiss of me not to offer a value bet for the week and it would be no surprise to see Fitzgerald claim the opening score of the game at tasty odds of 10/1. Carson Palmer is back under centre for the Cardinals and he holds an excellent rapport with Fitzgerald who obviously isn't the threat he used to be. However he does remain a red zone target and I have a feeling he will be utilized more on these occasions as he reaches the latter stages of his career.
****It is worth nothing the above player bets can be found in the player props section with certain bookmakers and also be found in player rushing/passing/receiving yards category in each match section.
