Marcas Brennan takes a closer look at the race for MVP and a number of player bets for the upcoming NFL.
Adrian Peterson most regular season rushing yards @ 9/2
What better way to start than a 9/2 tip I think is the bet of the year. Adrian Peterson returns from a long suspension and be prepared for a huge statistical season under the guidance of Mike Zimmer in Minnesota.
There are a number of reasons why 9/2 feels too big for player of this calibre. Peterson is the best runner the NFL has seen in the past two decades and carries the rock with incredible velocity, pace and power. He will be healthy after a year out and will be intent on ensuring his legacy is not remembered for the infamous suspension. Much like a woman scorned, beware of a running back playing with a huge chip on their shoulder.
However the strongest reasons for backing Peterson lie with his offensive co-ordinator Norv Turner and the competition for the title. Turner is one of the best offensive minds in the game-just ask Ladamian Tomlinson, whose career prospered under the formers Chargers head coach and unlike other running backs I expect him to receive 20+ carries a game on a constant basis.
Some other quality backs top the betting list with Marshawn Lynch, Jeremy Hill, LeSean McCoy, DeMarco Murray, Eddie Lacy, Arian Foster and Le'Eveon Bell all in contention. All of these are excellent runners but none of the quality of Peterson. However, the majority of them will have to split carries with another tailback(Murray, Lynch and Hill) or are injured or suspended( Foster, Bell). With this in mind Peterson should receive significant more carries over the 16 game season than his closest rivals.
Let's not forget this is the same Peterson who carved his way to over 2,000 yards and a MVP title in 2012, all after major knee surgery in December of 2011. A freak of nature returns and snap up the 9/2 while possible.
Andrew Luck to be named regular season MVP @ 5/1
The MVP is always an intriguing market as it really is between five or six superstars of the NFL. Cases can be made for J.J. Watt, Ben Roethlisberger, Adrian Peterson, Tom Brady and front runner for the award Aaron Rodgers. However, it is hard not be taken by the chances of Colts quarterback Andrew Luck being named the most valuable player come February.
The Colts went all out in the offseason, both in the draft and in free agency to provide luck with the weapons he needs to create the most potent offense in the league. Frank Gore will bring a physicality to the running game in Indiana and it is that balance on offense that will see Luck thrive. The addition of Eddie Lacy to the Packers run game last year saw Rodgers take the MVP award and I expect a similar situation for another elite QB in Luck.
He has all the skills required to be the best in the league and shows a fearless attitude that everybody wants in their franchise leader. On the flip side of it the Colts don't possess a dominant defence which means there may be plenty of high scoring games throughout the season. This will see Luck take part in a number of high scoring matches and certainly add to his statistical prowess.
The Colts should win 11, maybe 12 games this season and home field advantage in the playoffs is certainly within reach. The outside help of dynamic receivers like Phillip Dorsett, Andre Johnson and co will make the Colts a formidable outfit and with Luck under centre they may prove to be one of the best offenses in the NFL.
Ben Roethlisberger most regular season passing yards @ 7/1
There are numerous factors when considering player prop bets for the upcoming year. For the above bet you need an elite QB comfortable in his offense and with the weapons to cause damage on a continuos basis throughout the year. It helps if your team implements a pass-heavy offense, but more importantly it's worth noting the strength of that QB's defence. If their defence isn't a top 10 defence they could be part of a lot of high scoring matches thus meaning higher numbers for your quarterback.
And for these reasons and in particular the final one I can see Ben Roethlisberger leading the league in passing yards in the upcoming year. First up the Steelers defence will lead to a lot of high scoring games with Roethlisberger forced to keep his team in it, particularly early on with some high profile stars set to miss out due to suspension.
There is no doubt Roethlisberger has grown into Todd Haley's offensive scheme and is thriving in a system that forces quicker releases and a better timing and understanding between quaterback and receivers. With Antonio Brown and Le'veon Bell in the top three players in their position, the Steelers possess an offensive that is arguably the best in the business.
Roethlisberger enjoyed his best statistical season last year and I expect him to improve again and lead the league in passing at a tasty price of 7/1.
