Germany Beat Holland – The Group B Gambling Ramifications
So after yesterday’s very lively day’s football in Lviv and Kharkiv, the the Group B landscape has been seriously changed. Germany look like they’re on course for the finals, Holland have imploded and the no one can be really sure who’s going to be the second team out of that group. Here’s how the gambling market has responded:
Germany is essentially through. They’re 1/25 to make it through. No one is buying the reality that a Denmark win and Portugal win will boot Germany out. As for the second team to qualify out of Group B, Portugal are 1/2, which seems like a prohibitive bet to me. The markets are essentially saying that the Dutch are done – 13/2 to make it out of the group. It’s too complicated here to describe what it’ll take for them to get out of the group, but it starts with a healthy beating of Portugal.
As for rock bottom in the group, the odds are generally similar. The Dutch look like a dead cert at 1/3 with the Danes as outsiders at 9/1 and the Portuguese at 2/1. Again, there’s some really complicated math and everything will hinge on goal difference and head to head. If you think the Dutch might be woken from their zombie state and are ready to hammer Portugal, that might be decent bet.
If you’re into laying, the Dutch are still a ridiculous 7/1 to reach the semi finals, which is nearly impossible to believe. The Germans, who’ll play Poland or the Czechs in the finals, are 1/3 to reach the semis. POrtugal also seem like a good lay, at an overvalued 13/5. Denmark are also at 7/1.
After his two goals yesterday, Mario Gomez has become nearly-odds on to win the top-scorer throne at 9/5. His three goals put him level with Dzagoev who (considering Greece lie in waiting for Russia) is an inviting 13/2. Everyone else in an outsider. Layers – Torres is strangely 33/1. Barring a hat-trick today, I can’t see him doing it.
The Group With Most Goals still remains one of the most intriguing bets in the tournament. The tournament marks its seventh day today and we still haven’t had a nil-all. There have been 10 goals in Group B, yet they’re only 4-1. Group A is at 8/5 with twelve goals after two rounds. Unless Spain hammer Ireland today, my hunch is that it will come down to these two groups. I think the final round of games in Group B could bring another 4-5 goals and that might just be enough, especially with Russia through to the quarters.